(covering SK1, SK2 and SK3)

Category: property market news

What will the General Election do to 30,791 Stockport Homeowners?

In Stockport, of the 46,646 households, 13,184 homes are owned without a mortgage and 17,607 homes are owned by a mortgage. Many homeowners have made contact me with asking what the General Election will do the Stockport property market? The best way to tell the future is to look at the past.

I have looked over the last five General Elections and analysed in detail what happened to the property market on the lead up to and after the General Election. Some very interesting information has come to light.

Of the last five general elections (1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the two elections that weren’t certain were the last two (2010 with the collation and 2015 with unexpected Tory majority). Therefore, I wanted to compare what happened in 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Tony Blair was guaranteed to be elected /re-elected verses the last knife edge uncertain votes of 2010 and 2015.. in terms of the number of houses sold and the prices achieved.

Look at the first graph below comparing the number of properties sold and the dates of the General Elections

It is clear, looking at the number of monthly transactions (the blue line), there is a certain rhythm or seasonality to the housing market. That rhythm / seasonality has never changed since 1995 (Seasonality meaning the periodic fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season – i.e. you can see how the number of properties sold dips around Christmas, rises in Spring and Summer and drops again at the end of the year).

To remove that seasonality, I have introduced the red line. The red line is a 12 month ‘moving average’ trend line which enables us to look at the ‘de-seasonalised’ housing transaction numbers, whilst the yellow arrows denote the times of the General Elections. It is clear to see that after the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections, there was significant uplift in number of households sold, whilst in 2010 and 2015, there was slight drop in house transactions (ie number of properties sold).

Next, I wanted to consider what happened to property prices. In the graph below, I have used that same 12 month average, housing transactions numbers (in red) and yellow arrows for the dates of the General Elections but this time compared that to what happened to property values (pink line).

It is quite clear none of the General Elections had any effect on the property values. Also, the timescales between the calling of the election and the date itself also means that any property buyer’s indecisiveness and indecision before the election will have less of an impact on the market.

So finally, what does this mean for the landlords of the 6,875 private rented properties in Stockport? Well, as I have discussed in previous articles (and just as relevant for homeowners as well) property value growth in Stockport will be more subdued in the coming few years for reasons other than the General Election. The growth of rents has taken a slight hit in the last few months as there has been a slight over supply of rental property in Stockport, making it imperative that Stockport landlords are realistic with their market rents.. but in the long term as the younger generation still choose to rent rather than buy .. the prospects, even with the changes in taxation, mean investing in buy to let still looks a good bet.

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ATTENTION INVESTORS: I have a fantastic investment for you this week on Greystoke Street for under £100,000…

I have a fantastic new property for you this week which is actually on with us here in the Stockport Exchange Branch!  I must say I am not a huge fan of promoting us via this portal too much, as I feel I should be promoting other properties in Stockport, but this one is just too good to ignore!

The property is on Greystoke Street, close to the centre of Stockport and it has the SK1 postcode to prove it.   I feel that this area is a little bit untapped by investors and slightly ignored, as everyone is focusing their invesment searches in Edgeley where certain agents are dominating the market and pushing the prices to an astronomical level which are quite frankly silly and causing investors to gain very little in terms of the investment potential, so I would air on the side of caution, step away from the Edgeley madness and have a look at SK1.  You may be surprised.

So, Greystoke Street is on the market at less than £100,000 which is extremely rare!  It is on the market for a fantastic price at £87,500 and there is a tenant living in the property at the moment who is paying rent each month at £495pcm.  This means that the return on your investment (if bought at the asking price) would give you an incredible yield of 6.79%.   Now I know that that is something to smile about!  For this price you will be getting a very well presented one bedroom, first floor flat within a terraced property.  The property was converted a while ago to two flats, but the finish is excellent and would appeal to anyone looking to rent a one bedroom flat, where the going rate in stockport centre is now between £500pcm and £600pcm for a lovely property like this.

To book a viewing please call me, Gemma Francis, Lettings Manager at Stockport Exchange on 0161 474 8668 and I would be happy to show you around myself and give you any Lettings advice and assistance you may require.

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distance to work

How far people travel to work says a lot about the nature of an area. For example if people live and work in market towns there is likely to be a lot more community spirit to experience in daily life. When people are travelling further afield to work, they effectively spend their days on two different communities. It will be interesting to see if community spirit increases as people work more from home.

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A quarterly index of house prices

This chart shows how house prices in the local area have moved over the last seven quarters. We’ve indexed flats, terraces, semi-detached and detached homes so they start at the same point so you can easily see how they’ve moved in relation to one another.

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annual sales levels by broad property type

A look at the annual sales charts for the last ten years offers a good indication of market activity within the local area. Patterns are in line with expectations given the nature of our area. While there is nothing too surprising about which type of properties have seen the most transactions, it’s useful to see how the market has performed since just before the credit crunch.

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how old are people when they buy their first home in our area?

Our friends in the U.S have been chasing the ‘American Dream’ for some time now, yet we Brits don’t really have a moniker for ‘making it’ in the UK. If we were to coin our version of the ‘British Dream’, we imagine it would be celebrated every time someone took their first steps on the property ladder.

First-time buyers play a pivotal role in the UK housing market and represent a key driver of demand. Their average age has been steadily rising over the last few decades as property has become less affordable in some parts of the country. However, schemes like shared ownership and Help-to-buy have helped younger people get on the ladder, putting downward pressure on average ages of first-time buyers.

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how many second home owners are there in stockport?

The number of second homes registered in a local area can really give you a feel of if the area is right for you. In Stockport, the mix is as follows:

No 2nd address 97.1%
2nd address within the UK 2.3%
2nd address outside the UK 0.6%
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occupancy levels in stockport

Want to know how in demand properties in a given area are? Occupancy is a useful indicator for demand, as well as illustrating how spacious or cosy properties are in the local area. In Stockport, 48.3 per cent of properties have two or more extra rooms and 26.8 per cent have one extra room.

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promising sales levels in stockport

The weather may still be warming up outside, but it’s already a hot time of year for the property market. The expected uptick in sales has materialised as you can see from the chart. Particularly notable are sales levels of detached properties, which have increased 26.2 per cent since the last quarter of 2015.

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flat and house prices in stockport

With increasing clarity from the government, the housing market is returning to it’s usual stride. Looking at quarter-on-quarter price data in Stockport, we can see that the average sold prices of houses is up 6.8 per cent since the last quarter of 2015.

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